Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 0.079360 0.091780 0.105937 0.123358 0.144342 0.168957 0.200246
2025-10-26 0.060874 0.075698 0.094161 0.119148 0.152556 0.196362 0.259301
2025-11-02 0.047218 0.062320 0.082571 0.112312 0.155926 0.219263 0.321549
2025-11-09 0.036723 0.050974 0.071333 0.103464 0.154689 0.236518 0.384535
2025-11-16 0.030723 0.044756 0.066072 0.102202 0.164927 0.275685 0.502459
2025-11-23 0.025967 0.039506 0.061253 0.100643 0.174829 0.319412 0.655594
2025-11-30 0.022615 0.035852 0.058282 0.101641 0.190257 0.381569 0.892023
2025-12-07 0.019812 0.032604 0.055371 0.102148 0.205559 0.452638 1.213006
2025-12-14 0.017067 0.028985 0.051101 0.099004 0.212539 0.510142 1.559743
2025-12-21 0.014205 0.024696 0.044785 0.090082 0.203406 0.523206 1.786049
2025-12-28 0.012720 0.022755 0.042722 0.090059 0.216887 0.610904 2.424984
2026-01-04 0.011657 0.021460 0.041740 0.092360 0.238133 0.740774 3.498803
2026-01-11 0.010578 0.019997 0.040208 0.093188 0.256842 0.883415 5.026184
2026-01-18 0.009625 0.018652 0.038692 0.093735 0.275751 1.049845 7.293569
2026-01-25 0.008634 0.017076 0.036357 0.091442 0.284594 1.186257 9.955431
2026-02-01 0.007649 0.015377 0.033436 0.086706 0.282778 1.273422 12.668558
2026-02-08 0.007072 0.014516 0.032428 0.087503 0.303621 1.519442 19.345412
2026-02-15 0.006536 0.013673 0.031316 0.087707 0.322865 1.793028 29.660316
2026-02-22 0.006137 0.013099 0.030809 0.089816 0.352837 2.206116 50.434609
2026-03-01 0.005756 0.012515 0.030166 0.091310 0.381746 2.685250 87.339940
2026-03-08 0.005301 0.011686 0.028697 0.089407 0.392433 3.036003 134.815895
2026-03-15 0.004725 0.010487 0.025990 0.082132 0.369358 2.999495 157.729507
2026-03-22 0.004446 0.010015 0.025327 0.082628 0.392609 3.568640 286.734038